SpaceX

Rocket and satellite company offering low-cost launches and global internet via Starlink

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Key person risk is massively undersold. Musk is running SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, Neuralink, Boring Company, and X simultaneously. Starship delays correlate directly with his Twitter acquisition. At $1.25T this is priced for a future that hasn't happened yet.

Goldman is the lead underwriter of the IPO, so their valuation analysis is a conflict of interest. See Morningstar, who values SpaceX at roughly half the value being sought.

I made sure to steer clear of Tesla and now SpaceX across my investments. It is not that Musk is incompetent or the companies are bad — but his reality-distortion field creates valuations and schemes designed to extract as much money as possible from investors rather than to enrich them.

Lockup expiry is going to be a bloodbath. Six months from IPO, 200+ early investors and employees all dump on the same day. Patient money waits for that.

Backroom deals. SpaceX IPO + the Anthropic / xAI / SpaceX compute partnership: Anthropic rents the entire Colossus 1 data center and other compute from SpaceX (which acquired xAI). Anthropic pays SpaceX ~$1.25B / month, totaling ~$45B for a multi-year lease.

Friendly reminder that SpaceX has had cumulative negative free cash flow over its entire lifetime. The IPO IS the exit for the cash burn.

I was wondering why Musk got so many voting shares in SpaceX. Then I worked out it was just enough to get overall control of a combined company (assuming SpaceX stays at or above IPO valuation and Tesla stays under his beloved 420). Suspect it also means all the pumping from now on will be SpaceX, while Tesla will be "less bullish" than normal.

Starlink alone could be worth $400B+ at IPO. The launch business is throwing off cash. The Mars story is the free option.

China space program is the actual long-term threat nobody talks about. They've been launching at 80% of SpaceX cadence in 2025.

I think Musk is steadily working towards "too big to fail": make the entire US economy depend on his rat's nest of a megacorp, plus miltech / policetech (SpaceX, Grok).

Starlink alone could justify half the valuation. The launch cadence is unmatched — nearly 100 Falcon 9 flights per year. Key risk is valuation at $1.25T requires near-perfect execution on Starship.

If SpaceX IPOs at $1.5T it's the largest US listing in history. Aramco was $1.7T in MENA — comparable scale, but US retail demand will be unprecedented.

Tesla claims to be pivoting away from cars in favour of producing their Optimus robots. And SpaceX's IPO valuation appears to be predicated on them being an AI datacentre company. So I guess the "Musk plays 4D chess" view would be that there are obvious synergies between humanoid robots and AI. Honestly, that makes it seem worse than the purely cynical financial engineering takes.

Anyone else worried about the Musk discount when he keeps tweeting through earnings calls?

Day 1 will be insane volatility. Not chasing it. Set limit orders 20% below the open and walk away.

I am genuinely questioning what synergies there are between Tesla and SpaceX. What do electric cars and rockets have in common? Are they going to make a rocket-powered car? Put a Tesla on the moon? The only thing I can think that makes any sense at all is Teslas coming with Starlink terminals built in. That seems like a stretch though.

Starshield is 25-30% of revenue and most analysts ignore it. Government contracts are sticky and high-margin.

Anyone modeling this needs to back out the Terafab capex. Free cash flow excluding chip fab investment is actually positive.

Revenue growth from $1.8B in 2016 to $15.5B in 2025 speaks for itself. The moat in reusable launch is widening, not narrowing. Starshield government contracts add another revenue pillar.

$5B loss in 2025 per The Information. Headline scary but they're spending it on Starship + Terafab. Capex-heavy doesn't equal broken.

Markets are forward-looking, pricing in future cash flows. No one should be thinking about SpaceX's present value when buying their stock. If you do that you'll always be too late to the party. That said, I don't agree on the valuation either, but I can see where some people could be coming from.

A space anti-ballistic missile system (a.k.a. Golden Dome, and before that Brilliant Pebbles) is likely coming if SpaceX figures out Starship and China figures out their Starship clone. Plus maybe a "rods from god" type offensive system if these countries can't make a deal to avoid space weapons.

This is exactly why Starlink is successful. If we had decent regulations and good internet on the ground, why would we bother going to outer space? The truth is it's cheaper to build an ISP in space to work around the corruption that has kept all these monopolies in power.

Companies are valued at whatever people are willing to pay for stocks. Their real financial performance is, as far as I can tell, completely detached from the stock price in any real physical form. The only thing that matters is what investors are willing to pay. If that's true (which it is, right?), the stock market is basically just gambling. At which point, rationally, the SpaceX IPO makes sense.

The fact that Saudi PIF, Mubadala, and CalPERS are all anchor investors says everything about who's underwriting this. Not retail.

I'll DCA in over 6 months post-IPO. Day-one pop into anchored selling = obvious wreck.

I sold my Tesla 3 months ago and parked the cash for SpaceX IPO. Probably the worst trade timing of my life.

Everyone outside the USA today who is using US AI models in their products is worried that this is the first but not the last time this will happen. Further, the SpaceX IPO was on revenues from AI data centers. This might be a problem.

No, you just use solar panels on the container ship — the same ones you'd use on a satellite. There are thousands of container ships in international waters at any given time, so you wouldn't install a few massive power-hungry data centers on a few ships. You'd put a lot of PV-powered data centers on a lot of ships. Pretend you launched them into space, in other words, but don't actually launch them. And yes, you'd network them via Starlink.

Comparing SpaceX to Aramco is wrong. SpaceX is vertically integrated infrastructure. Aramco is a single commodity. Apples and concrete.

If you held private shares in SpaceX in 2020 you're up 6x. The IPO just lets you finally rebalance the position.

It's a market manipulation following the SpaceX IPO. They'll buy and then reverse the decision shortly to sell.

Crying wolf bites back? This looks like a giant PR stunt to me. Maybe they got jealous of SpaceX's IPO and want to jack up their initial stock price even more.

hiiii, i really like spacex as a company, i am bullish about it. i wish to go to the moon!

I don't like Elon